中国能源生产与消费趋势预测和碳排放研究  

Trend Forecast of Energy Production and Consumption in China and Research of Carbon Emissions

作　　者：包森[1] 田立新[1] 王军帅[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学能源发展与环境保护战略研究中心,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2010年第8期1248-1254,共7页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(90610031);国家博士点基金(2009);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(08JA790058);高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2010-2-7)

摘　　要：为合理、科学地对能源结构进行调整和优化,提出了能源结构的双组份模型。由统计检验估计法,对模型中的能源生产与消费的相关系数进行了预测估计。依据中国统计年鉴2008年数据,对我国2014年能源生产与能源消费的预测结果分别为24.26×108t标准煤及27.15×108t标准煤。利用预测的能源消费总量、结构与碳排放量之间的关系式——即单位能耗碳排放系数的表达式,预测中国2012年的碳排放量为21.87×108t标准煤,且有上升趋势,并提出了相关的能源对策。A two-component model is proposed to adjust and optimize the energy resources structure reasonably and scientifically.The energy production and consumption-related coefficients were predicted and estimated by the estimation method for statistical test.The projection results of the energy production and consumption in the year of 2014 are 2426 million and 2715 million tons of standard coal respectively by the data of China＇s statistical yearbooks in 2008 quantitatively.Using the predicted energy consumption quantity,structure and the relationship between the carbon emissions（units of energy consumption coefficient of carbon emissions）,the projection result of the total carbon emissions of China in the year of 2012 is 2187 million tons of standard coal and it is on the rise.The related measures are also proposed.

关 键 词：能源结构 双组份模型 统计检验估计法 碳排放 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]