中国公路交通与城镇化发展综合评价及其相关性研究  

Comprehensive Evaluation and Correlations Research of China Highway Traffic and Urbanization Development

作　　者：夏飞[1] 叶莉[1] 袁洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2010年第4期1-6,共6页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"高速公路经济带生成机理与区域战略研究"(09BJY049);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目"公路交通发展对城镇化影响的机理与动态评价研究"(NCET-08-0681)

摘　　要：本文细化公路交通和城镇化的测度指标,并以我国各地区的经验数据研究公路交通与城镇化之相关性。利用2004-2006年各省的公路交通和城镇化经验数据,采用相关分析,动态集对同一度分析和回归分析等统计方法研究发现:城镇化综合水平与等级公路里程比重、公路密度显著正相关,与公路交通运力显著负相关,公路交通发展和城镇化的水平呈东、中、西部同向减弱的现象,应采取相应政策,促进以公路交通带动城镇化的快速发展。This article illustrated the measure indexes of road traffic and urbanization,and studied the mechanism of road traffic’s effect on urbanization by empirical data in China.Using correlation analysis,dynamic set pair analysis and regression analysis with provincial data during 2004-2006,it’s found that the comprehensive urbanization level shows positive correlation with the proportion of classified highway mileage and the road density,and negative correlation with the road traffic ability.The highway traffic development and the urbanization level present the same weakening direction from the East to the West of China.Some countermeasures should be taken to promote urbanization through developing highway communication.

关 键 词：公路交通 城镇化 动态集对同一度分析法 

分 类 号：F540.31[经济管理—产业经济]