ENSO事件对南昌地区霍乱发病的影响  

IMPACTS OF ENSO EVENT ON CHOLERA INCIDENCE IN NANCHANG

作　　者：汪如良[1] 刘志萍[1] 吴景文[2] 林铍德[1] 刘熙明[3] 徐芳 胡茂红[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西省气象科技服务中心,南昌330046 [2]南昌市疾病预防控制中心 [3]江西省气象科学研究所 [4]江西省水利水电学校

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第16期3004-3006,3011,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江西省防灾减灾研究基金课题"南昌市天气气候条件与霍乱的关系研究"

摘　　要：[目的]本文探索ENSO事件与南昌霍乱暴发的关系。[方法]利用1977～2008年ENSO资料和1978～2007年逐年南昌霍乱发病资料进行Morlet小波分析和统计分析。[结果]ENSO事件和南昌霍乱发病率都存在5年左右周期的主波,其相关性比较好;强ENSO暖事件发生后的第二年和中等强度及以上的ENSO冷事件发生的当年,霍乱发病率都比较高,并且,ENSO事件越强,霍乱发病率越高;在同一年内ENSO暖事件向冷事件转换震荡,霍乱病例几乎都会发生,且转换震荡越强,霍乱病例越多。[结论]ENSO事件与南昌霍乱暴发的相关很好。[Objective] To explore the relationships between the ENSO event and cholera incidence in Nanchang. [Methods] The 1977-2008 ENSO data and 1978-2007 cholera incidence data were used to analyze by the Morlet wavelet method. [Results] Both ENSO event and cholera incidence in Nanchang presented the 5-year periodic oscillations,and the corelation between the ENSO event and cholera incidence was obvious. The cholera incidence increased in the year after the strong warm ENSO events or the cold ENSO events. The stronger the ENSO event occurred,the more the cholera cases would have. Moreover,when the ENSO event transformed from warm one to cold one in the same year,the cholera diseases would almost occur,while the more transforming vibration had,the more cholera cases would have. [Conclusion] The correlation between ENSO event and cholera incidence is very obvious.

关 键 词：ENSO事件 MORLET小波分析 霍乱 

分 类 号：R516.5[医药卫生—内科学]