成都市细菌性痢疾预警指标体系构建  

ESTABLISHING A INDICATOR SYSTEM FOR EARLY WARNING OF BACILLARY DYSENTERY IN CHENGDU

作　　者：杜长慧[1] 张强[2] 殷菲[2] 廖洪秀[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心,成都610041 [2]四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室 [3]攀枝花市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第16期3144-3146,3154,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：成都市卫生局重大医学联合攻关项目(0611)

摘　　要：[目的]建立一套科学合理的适合成都市细菌性痢疾暴发或流行的预警指标体系,为各级疾病预防控制机构提供理论依据,为相关研究提供方法学参考。[方法]在系统查阅文献的基础上,建立细菌性痢疾预警指标体系草案;采用专家咨询法对拟定的指标体系进行研究认可,运用综合指数法和界值法筛选指标;采用层次分析法确定预警指标的权重。[结果]第1轮咨询问卷的Cronbach’sα系数为0.78;两轮专家咨询的专家积极系数分别为100%,90%;咨询专家意见协调系数为0.41;专家权威系数为0.86。通过两轮专家咨询和层次分析法确定细菌性痢疾预警指标体系,包含2个一级指标,7个二级指标和19个三级指标,其中细菌性痢疾聚焦性病例的出现、细菌性痢疾病例或疑似病例报告数及死亡数、食品卫生质量合格率和餐具消毒合格率的权重较大。[结论]本研究建立的指标体系可根据指标的可获得性程度,在资料不完整的情况下优先考虑权重较大的指标,不仅能在目前已开展的工作基础上有效使用,而且为进一步扩展细菌性痢疾的监测范围和频度提供了指导依据。[Objective] To establish a scientific and reasonable indicator system suitable for the early warning of bacillary dysentery outbreak or epidemic in Chengdu,provide a theoretical basis for disease prevention and control institutions at all levels,and to provide a methodology reference for relevant researches. [Methods] Basing on the systematic literature review,we established a draft of indicator system for early warning of bacillary dysentery. Expert advice method was applied to study and accredit the recommended indicator system,and then the indicators were screened by aggregative index number method and threshold value method. The weight of prewarning indicators was determined by analytic hierarchy process eventually. [Results] In the first round of consultation questionnaire,Cronbach＇s α coefficient was 0.78 while expert active coefficient during the two rounds of consultation was 100% and 90%,respectively. The coordination coefficient of consulting expertise was W = 0.41,and expert authority coefficient was 0.86. The indicator system for early warning of bacillary dysentery was determined by analytic hierarchy process after the two rounds of expert consultation including 2 first class indicators,7 second class indicators and 19 third class indicators. Among them,the occurrence of focusing cases of bacillary dysentery,the reported number and mortality of bacillary dysentery cases or suspected case,and the qualification rate of food hygiene quality and tableware disinfection accounted for greater weight. [Conclusion] The indicator system established in this study can preferentially considerate the indicators with greater weight according to the procurability of different indicators even if the data were incomplete. Therefore,this system can be effectively carried out not only on the base of present developed work,but also give a guidance for further expansion of the monitoring scope and frequency of bacteria dysentery.

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 预警 指标体系 层次分析法 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]