个人特征、家庭特征与农村剩余劳动力转移——一个基于Probit模型的实证分析  

Individual Features,Household Characteristics and Rural Surplus Labor Migration:An Empirical Study Based on Probit Model

作　　者：程名望[1] 史清华[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院 [2]上海交通大学安泰管理学院

出　　处：《经济评论》2010年第4期49-55,共7页Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"农民生产态度的假说与实证:基于试验经济学的视角"(编号:70673065);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金"我国农民工进城务工风险管理问题研究"(编号:200802471084);全国教育科学"十一五"规划课题"现代教育对农村劳动力流动的影响和作用研究"(编号:EAA080254);上海市社科规划青年课题"上海市农民工务工风险管理问题研究"(编号:2008EJB007);上海市教育委员会科研创新课题"国际金融危机影响下我国农村剩余劳动力转移机理与长效机制研究"(编号:10ZS30)的资助

摘　　要：本文运用2003-2006年全国农村固定观察点数据,建立计量经济模型实证分析了农民个体特征和农户家庭特征对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响。研究表明:就个体特征来看,男性、非农业户口和身体健康的农民外出就业的意愿更强,而户主或家庭主要经营者、拥有专业技术职称、受过农业技术教育或培训的农民更不愿意外出务工;就家庭特征来看,"家庭收入主要来源"、"家庭经营主业"、"是否国家干部职工户"、"是否乡村干部户"、"是否党员户"、"是否军烈属户"和"是否五保户"等变量对农民外出务工影响显著,而"家庭类型"则没有显著的影响。本文的研究结论所蕴含的启示是,在制定促进中国农村剩余劳动力转移政策时,要充分考虑转移者个人特征、家庭特征因素,特别是要尊重农民的主体地位,发挥农民自身的创造性和积极性。Based on the data collected from stable survey in countryside over the period of 2003 and 2006, the paper establishes econometric model to analyze how farmers＇ individual features and household characteristics affect rural surplus labor migration. The research based on individual characteristics shows that male, non - agricultural households and healthy farmers have more willing to migration, but the head of the household or farmers family major operators, with professional and technical titles or received training in agricultural techniques famers have weak willing to migration. The research based on household characteristics shows that ＂the main source of household income＂ , ＂family - run core business＂, ＂whether the state cadres and employees households＂ , ＂whether the village cadres families＂ , ＂whether the communist members＂ , ＂whether the revolutionary martyrs families＂ and ＂whether the five guarantees＂ have a significant effect to migrant farmers, but ＂Family type＂ has no significant impact. From what has been concluded in this paper, it can be found that individual features and household characteristics should be fully considered when promoting the development of rural surplus labor policy, in particular to respect the dominant position of the peasants and the role of farmers＇ own creativity and enthusiasm.

关 键 词：个人特征 家庭特征 农村劳动力转移 PROBIT模型 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]