对中国适度外汇储备的测度  

Measurement of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

作　　者：王凌云[1] 王恺[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院 [2]南开大学商学院

出　　处：《经济评论》2010年第4期117-123,160,共8页Economic Review

摘　　要：近年来,关于中国外汇储备的适度规模存在很大争论。本文在进行详细综述的基础上,首先运用四种比例分析法测算了中国外汇储备最低安全规模,发现近年来中国实际外汇储备已远超出最低安全规模。进一步地,我们根据中国具体国情,建立了外汇储备需求模型和成本-收益模型,并运用相关数据,分别测算了中国1985-2008年外汇储备适度规模区间的下限和上限。在将适度规模区间中值和实际外汇储备额进行比较后,本文发现,中国外汇储备规模在1994年以前严重不足,1994年外汇体制改革后至1998年期间在一个较正常的区间内波动,但自1999年起一直高于适度规模的上限并持续增多。最后,鉴于目前中国外汇储备远超出适度规模的上限,本文提出了调节中国外汇储备至适度规模的若干政策建议。Recent years have witnessed a great controversy concerning the appropriate scale of China＇ s foreign exchange reserve. Based on the detailed literature review, we firstly find with four methods of ratio analysis that the actual size of China＇ s recent foreign exchange reserve is much larger than the minimum size for security. Combining the method of reserve demand and that of cost - benefit, we further build a model suitable for gauging the appropriate range of China＇ s reserve according to China＇ s specific condition. Then we calculate the upper and lower limits of the appropriate range with the data between 1985 and 2008. After comparing the actual reserves with the median of the appropriate range, we find that the scale of China＇ s reserves is seriously insufficient prior to 1994 ; fluctuates around a moderate range between 1994 and 1998; rises beyond the upper limit and picks up after 1998. Finally, in view of the fact that China＇ s current reserve is far beyond the extent of appropriate scale, this paper puts forward several policy recommendations about adjusting China＇s reserves to the appropriate scale.

关 键 词：外汇储备 适度规模 比例分析法 储备需求模型 成本-收益法 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]