GDP增长的要素贡献率分解  

The Contribution Rates of Factors in GDP Growth Rate

作　　者：宋辉[1] 魏晓平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2010年第8期49-53,共5页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目<西部能源资源开采顺序研究>(90610032)

摘　　要：在GDP增长的要素分析中,国内学者一般强调单一要素的作用,如资本的高积累、劳动参与率或技术进步等,并且对不同要素在所研究的特定时期内的贡献率变动趋势缺乏分析;而能源对GDP增长的作用往往被认为是不明显的,这显然与中国政府非常重视能源消耗与GDP增长的关系的事实不吻合。因此,把能源资源引入模型GM(1,4),构建灰生产函数,借鉴"索洛剩余"的思想,对中国2001—2008年期间GDP增长的主要生产要素贡献率进行分解,结果发现:2001—2008年期间,资本对GDP增长的贡献率处于绝对强势地位,其产出弹性保持着强进的增长势头;相反,劳动、能源与技术等要素对GDP的贡献率处于绝对弱势,并且劳动的产出弹性保持着直线式的下降趋势,能源的产出弹性则始终处于比较低的平稳状态,技术的贡献率呈现波动性下滑趋势。鉴此,提出了与之相应的建议。The ash production function was constructed based on the model of GM（1,4）by introducing energy resources as one element.China＇s GDP growth rates from 2001to 2008are decomposed,referring to the＂Solow residual＂,to the four main factors of production which found that the capital was the key factor driving GDP growth and its output elasticity maintained strong growing momentum versus to the factor of labor,while the output elasticity of energy always kept drastically low and stable.In addition,the contribution rate of technology showed a decline in volatility.Therefore,effective strategies must been taken such as increasing capital investment,improving the quality of workers,enlarging investment of loan in scientific and technological fields and improving the utilization rate of energy resources in order to achieve steady growth in GDP.

关 键 词：灰模型GM(1 4) 灰生产函数 贡献率 趋势 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]