转型期中国经济周期波动分析  

Empirical analysis of economic fluctuation cycle in China in the transitional period

作　　者：陈银忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《武汉科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第4期62-67,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Science and Technology:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:70771118)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,随着宏观经济政策的不断调整,中国的经济周期也在发生着变化。正确地把握中国经济周期波动的特点,对于国民经济的持续稳定发展具有重要的意义。文章采集了1978～2007年的21个宏观经济变量数据,采用HP滤波方法来分析改革开放后中国经济周期波动的特征,特别是1992年以后经济周期波动的事实。结果表明,1992年以后中国经济周期波动有了新的特征。With the constant adjustment of macroeconomic policies after the reform and opening-up,the economic cycle of China is changing.Correct understanding of the characteristics of China＇s economic fluctuation cycle is very important for the sustained and stable development of national economy.This article selects 21 macroeconomic variables,using HP filter to analyze the characteristics of China＇s economic fluctuation cycle between 1978 and 2007,especially between 1992 and 2007.The results show that there are some new characteristics with China＇s economic fluctuation after 1992.

关 键 词：转型期 经济周期波动 HP滤波 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]