“投资—储蓄缺口”假说与中国经常账户失衡的持续性  

"Investment-Saving Gap"Hypothesis and the Consistency of China's Current Account

作　　者：李津[1] 王刚[2] 李泽广[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学,天津300222 [2]北京大学经济学院博士后流动站,北京100140 [3]南开大学金融系,天津300071

出　　处：《上海金融》2010年第8期5-11,共7页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年项目(09YJC790158)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文梳理了解释美国经常账户失衡的各类假说,并以美国的情况为借鉴,提出了对中国经常账户失衡的几种解释思路。文章发现经常账户的实际水平与理论均衡水平的差值为稳定序列,但并不收敛于零,表明经常账户的失衡具有一定的持续性。然后通过设计两元选择模型对导致失衡的机制进行实证分析;结论发现"投资一储蓄缺口"假说得到了中国数据的支持,同时发现国民收入也是决定经常账户盈余或者赤字的关键变量。这说明我国经常账户的变化更多地内生于其特有的经济增长模式,对经常账户失衡状态的矫正需要内部经济结构的改革和理顺经济运行机制措施的配合。The article reviews some explanatory hypotheses of the unbalance of US＇s current account, and pro- poses several explanations on the unbalance of China＇s current account. The article finds out that the difference between real level of current account and the theoretical equilibrium level is stable series, but doesn＇t converge to zero. This finding indicates the consistency of the unbalance of current account. The article then designs a binary choice model to empirically analyze the mechanism behind such unbalance. The result shows that the ＂investment-saving gap＂ hypothesis is backed with China＇s data, and GNP is the key variable to determine the settlement of current account. The change in China＇s current account is decided by intrinsic economic growth model. And the correction of the unbalance of current account needs the cooperation of economic structure reform and relevant economic mechanisms.

关 键 词：经常账户 投资-储蓄假说 两元选择模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]