人民币升值压力中的非对称性分析  

The Analysis on the Non-symmetry in the Pressure of RMB Appreciation

作　　者：马德功[1] 臧敦刚[1] 康忠伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《上海金融》2010年第8期70-75,共6页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"完善汇率形成机制及应对人民币升值压力研究"(08BJY150)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：人民币升值问题始于2003年,我国于2005年7月实行了新的汇率制度改革,本次汇改后人民币出现稳步小幅升值过程,但是小幅升值并没有完全释放人民币升值压力。2010年中美有关人民币升值问题波澜再起,人民币升值呼声高涨。本质上,人民币升值压力并非经济基本因素所致,而是供求机制中的非对称性使然。本文以1998-2009年出口退税为例,运用两阶段最小二乘法及普通最小二乘法分析了人民币升值压力中的非对称性,结果表明,出口退税政策对人民币升值具有重要的促进作用。The issue of RMB appreciation rose at 2003, and China started the exchange rate regime reform at July, 2005. Since the reform, RMB have experienced a process of gradual appreciation. However, the pressure of RMB appreciation is still not released. In 2010, China and US debated over the issue of RMB appreciation, and voices demanding RMB to appreciate rose. Essentially, the pressure of RMB appreciation is not caused by economic fundamentals. It is cause rather by the non-symmetry of Demand-Supply mechanism. The article applies the TSLS and the OLS models to analyze the non-symmetry in the pressure of RMB appreciation based on export rebate from 1998 to 2009, and the result indicates that export rebate has an important stimulating effect on RMB appreciation.

关 键 词：人民币升值 出口退税 非对称性 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]