集合数值预报系统在上海市空气质量预测预报中的应用研究  

Application of Ensemble Numerical Model System on the Air Quality Forecast in Shanghai

作　　者：王茜[1] 伏晴艳[1] 王自发[2] 王体健[3] 刘萍[4] 陆涛[1] 林陈渊[1] 段玉森[1] 黄嫣旻[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市环境监测中心,上海200030 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029 [3]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210093 [4]上海交通大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2010年第4期1-6,11,共7页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：上海市科委科研计划项目(08dz0581200)

摘　　要：介绍了上海市世博环境空气质量集合数值预报系统的框架,分析了各模式在上海市空气质量预报及排放源污染贡献测算中的应用情况,提出开发多种预报手段、实施集合预报是提高城市空气质量预报准确率的发展方向。The air quality ensemble numerical model system for Expo 2010 in Shanghai was introduced. The application of this system on air quality forecast and the role played by emission sources from point emission, line emission and area emission on the concentrations of PM10, SO2 and NO2 was studied. Integrated forecast system based on the multiple forecasting tools will be the predominant trend to increase the accuracy of air quality forecast.

关 键 词：空气质量预报 集合数值预报 排放源 上海 

分 类 号：X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程]