韵律模式及其在热带气旋预报中的应用  

Rhythm mode and its applications in forecasting tropic cyclone

作　　者：苗其芬 肖晖[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门同安气象局,厦门361100 [2]国家海洋局第三海洋研究所,厦门361005

出　　处：《台湾海峡》1999年第2期221-226,共6页Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait

摘　　要：本文从单站气压（Ｐ）、气温（Ｔ）和湿度（ｅ）时间变化曲线图上分析归纳得到的６个月韵律模式，在入侵厦门同安区的热带气旋长期预报服务实践中收到了良好的效果。本韵律模式预报简便，预报准确率高出气候概率４倍以上。The troic cyclone, which alwars instrudes our county every year, of ten brings serious effects on the people life and the indusry and agriculture production. The six monthly rhythm mods, wihch are got from the analysis of the single station atmosphere pressure, temperature, humidity, time variation curve charts, have made good effects in the long range tropic cyclone forecast. The rhythm mode is easy to forecast and the forecast accuracy is more than four times of the climate probability.

关 键 词：热带气旋 福建 气旋预报 韵律模式 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P732.4