基于盲数理论的输电系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System Based on Blind Number Theory

作　　者：王磊[1] 张明文[2] 王秋莎[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]河北省电力公司发展策划部,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《电力科学与工程》2010年第8期4-9,共6页Electric Power Science and Engineering

摘　　要：常规输电系统可靠性评估用可靠性数据的均值进行评估,但实际可靠性数据中经常包含大量的盲信息,这必然会导致评估不准确。为了考虑可靠性数据的不确定性对评估结果的影响,用盲数理论处理可靠性数据的不确定性,即用盲数表示可靠性参数和指标。针对盲数运算计算量增加过快的缺点,提出了一些改进措施,降低了计算量。该方法与常规的可靠性评估方法相比,能反映参数不确定性对可靠性指标的综合影响及指标值的分布情况,提供的信息量更大,能反映指标的不确定性。通过算例分析,表明了该方法的合理性和有效性。General reliability evaluation of transmission systems evaluate reliability by average of reliability date,but the actual reliability date usually include a lot of bind information,which lead to the inaccuracy of evaluation.The paper uses the blind number theory to tackle the uncertainty of reliability date in order to calculate its effect on reliability evaluation,in which input parameters and reliability indices are expressed by blind number.Aiming at the disadvantage of rapid increase in blind number operation computation,the paper presents some measures and reduce the computation.A comparison with the general methods shows that the approach is capable of reflecting the general effect of input-parameter-uncertainty on reliability indices and the distribution of indices,provides a greater amount of information and reflects the uncertainty of indices.Analyzing examples shows the rationality and effectiveness of the approach.

关 键 词：输电系统 可靠性 不确定性 盲数理论 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]