新疆塔城地区近55年降水变化特征分析  

Analysis on precipitation change characteristics during recent 55 years in Tacheng prefecture of Xinjiang

作　　者：陈洪涛 汤英[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆伊犁花城勘测设计研究有限责任公司,新疆伊犁835000 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]宁夏水利科学研究所,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2010年第4期65-69,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB421301)

摘　　要：运用水文序列轮次分析、极差理论及气候趋势系数法,对塔城地区1954～2008年55年的月降水资料进行分析,探讨了塔城地区降水的丰枯特征、干旱历时、缺水量及其未来的变化趋势。结果表明:变差系数为0.217～0.327,降水量年际变化相对平稳。近55年中塔城地区干旱历时为28～31年。降水小于多年平均值的概率为51%～56%;塔城、和布克赛尔、乌苏及托里站平均年缺水量分别为:55.7、35.1、37.9、44.5、35.0mm。Hurst系数为0.543～0.780降水系列具有长持续性特征。乌苏地区年降水将增加(通过P=0.05的显著性检验),秋季降水将显著增加(P=0.01)。塔城地区年降水及夏季降水将显著增加(P=0.01),秋季降水也将增加(P=0.05)。Using the run,extremum deviation theory and the climate trend coefficient method,the characteristics of precipitation variability on ample/lack ,drought period,lack water and tendency are ana-lyzed by the monthly precipitation data during 1954～2008 in Tacheng Prefecture of Xinjiang.Results indicated that：The change of precipitation in Tacheng Prefecture is relative stable,and the variability coefficient is 0.217 to 0.327.The drought period is about 28 to 31 years.The probability of drought is 51% to 56% .The lack of precipitation in Tacheng,Hebukesaier,Wusu and Tuoli are 55.7,35.1,37.9,44.5 and 35.0 mm respectively.Hurst coefficient value is 0.543 to 0.780.In the future,the annual and autumn precipitation in Wusu have an increase tendency which pass t test （P=0.05 and P =0.01 significant separately） .The annual,summer and autumn precipitation in Tacheng Prefecture will be increased significantly （ P=0.01） ,but precipitation in Hebukesaier and Tuoli have no significant tendency.

关 键 词：降水 时空变化 轮次及极差分析 趋势分析 新疆塔城地区 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]