时间序列ARIMA模型在乙型肝炎疫情预测中的应用  

Forecasting Hapetitis B Epidemic Situation by Applying the ARIMA Model

作　　者：蔡晓虹[1] 何明祯[2] 周洲[1] 徐敏钢 

机构地区：[1]上海市闸北区疾病预防控制中心,上海200072 [2]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,上海200032

出　　处：《公共卫生与临床医学》2010年第2期125-128,共4页Public health and dinical medicine

摘　　要：目的应用时间序列模型中的自回归-求和-移动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averagemadel，ARIMA），分析乙肝发病，为乙肝的预警预测提供科学依据。方法利用上海市闸北区传染病监测系统7a多乙肝发病情况数据，建立乙肝疫情ARIMA预测模型。结果上海市闸北区2002-2009年乙肝时间序列符合ARIMA（1，1，1）模型（Ljung．Box检验，P=0．799），模型残差自相关系数均在士0．5之间，预测值与观测值具有较高的吻合度。结论乙肝ARIMA模型对乙肝疫情预测有较好的效果。Objective To analyze the hapetitis B epidemic situation by applying the ARIMA model, and to provide scientific evidences for forecasting hepatitis B epidemic. Methods The forecasting model was setup based on over seven years＇ data of the hepatitis B surveillence in Shanghai Zhabei district and in the application of ARIMA model. Results The hepatitis B time series of Shanghai Zhabei district accorded with ARIMA （1,1,1） model by Ljung-Box statistics （P=-0.799）, and correlation coefficient of model residual was within ＋0.5.The predicted value had better accord with the observed value. Conclusions It may be useful to apply the approach of ARIMA model to predict hepatitis B epidemic.

关 键 词：乙肝 时间序列 预测 

分 类 号：R512.62[医药卫生—内科学] R181.2[医药卫生—临床医学]