当前宏观经济分析和政策前瞻  

Recent macro-economic developments and the economic policy prospects

作　　者：纪敏[1] 王月[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局 [2]中国人民银行济南分行

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2010年第8期4-10,共7页China Money

摘　　要：文章综合分析今年以来我国经济运行情况后指出,当前我国宏观经济增长的内生动力尚未真正确立,结合新的外部冲击,我国经济增长的下行风险有所显现;随着国内外需求放缓,整体价格水平特别是PPI将出现回落,但粮食、生猪等部分食品价格存在较大上涨压力。总体看,短期政策无论放松或收紧都不具备大动的条件,需要在密切关注经济形势变化和前期政策效果的基础上及时动态微调。This paper analyzes the economic performance in China this year,and points out that the internal impetus for China＇s economic growth has not been established yet;and impacted by additional external shocks,an economic downside risk has emerged.As domestic and foreign demands decline,price levels,especially PPI,will drop off,but the prices of some items,like foodstuff and pork,will likely come under inflationary pressure.In general,there is no need for a move towards a loose or tight policy in the short run,and it is necessary to come up with timely fine-tuning based on economic changes and policy effects.

关 键 词：宏观经济 货币信贷 物价形势 汇率走势 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]