机械系统的风险概率与经济性安全评价方法研究与应用  

Risk Probability and Economic Safety Assessment Method for Mechanical System and Its Application

作　　者：徐格宁[1] 冯晓蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原科技大学机械电子工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第6期69-75,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目04课题(2006BAK02B04)

摘　　要：针对机械事故频发,为预防和控制事故,依据安全评价发展方向,结合安全系统工程、模糊可靠性理论、人因可靠性技术和安全经济学,从人-机-环3方面分析风险评价因素,建立符合客观实际的风险评价模型,提出包括人为因素、机械设备和环境在内的基本事件失效概率估算方法;以安全经济学的角度将事故严重度量化为风险经济损失,根据每个风险因素的风险概率和风险经济损失来选择风险评价项目,通过检查评价项目状况,最终得出系统风险度,从而形成关于机械系统的定量风险概率与经济性安全评价方法。并给出起重机大车运行机构的工程示例,验证该方法的正确性和可行性。For the purpose of preventing and controlling the frequently-occurring mechanical accidents,risk factors of mechanical system existing in the aspect of man-machine-environment are firstly analyzed according to the development direction of safety evaluation and based on safety system engineering,fuzzy reliability theory,human reliability technology and safety economics.And then a practical risk assessment model and a calculation method for the failure probability of basic events including man,machine and environment factors are presented.From the perspective of safety economics,the severity of accidents can be measured with economic loss.So,the risk assessment projects can be selected based on the risk probability and risk economic loss of each risk factor.By examining the assessment project,the system risk can be gotten.Thus,a quantitative risk probability and economic safety assessment method is formed.Finally,an example about the travel mechanism of a crane is given to demonstrate the correctness and the feasibility of the method.

关 键 词：定量安全评价 风险概率 可靠性 风险损失 经济损失 系统等级 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]