天津降水数据的空间插值分析  

Spatial Interpolation Analysis of Tianjin Precipitation

作　　者：陈晶晶[1] 胡蓓蓓[1] 王军[1] 陈振楼[1] 许世远[1] 叶明武[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院地理信息科学教育部重点实验室

出　　处：《安徽师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第4期382-387,共6页Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40730526,70703010)

摘　　要：采用反距离加权法（IDW）、梯度距离平方反比法（GIDW）、普通克里格法（OK）、协同克里格法（COKRING）插值方法,对天津市及周边地区四种频率年平均最大一日暴雨量数据的空间插值精度进行对比研究.交叉验证表明：四种频率降水量的插值平均绝对误差（MAE）为：15.77mm、18.42mm、11.71mm、11.72mm;平均均方根误差（RMISE）为：22.02mm、33.29mm、19.43mm、19.71mm;插值精度排序为OK〉COKING〉IDW〉GIDW;OK与COKRING差别并不明显,GIDW精度远低于IDW;降水频率的高低影响插值的误差,二者呈显著负相关关系.天津一日最大暴雨量的空间分布特征为：由北部山地和东南部沿海向中部地区逐渐减少.Based on the four frequency 80 years average rainstorm data of Tianjin area,four methods,viz anti distance weighted（IDW）,Gradient inverse square distance（GISD）,Ordinary Kriging（OK） and Collaborative Kring（COKRING）,were used to interpolate.The results of cross-validation showed that average absolute error （MAE） of the four frequency precipitation interpolate were 15.77mm,18.42mm,11.7175mm,11.7225mm respectively.Average root-mean-square error were 29.4mm,45.61mm,26.27mm,26.67mm severally.Generally,the precision sort was in the order of OKCOKINGIDWGIDW.In terms of the correlation between precipitation,attitude,latitude and longitude was weak,there was no significant difference between OK and COKRING results,and the accuracy of GIDW was much lower than that of IDW.The precipitation frequency was negative correlation with the interpolate error.The spatial interpolation results show that：the space distribution feature of the rainstorm in one day of Tianjin is gradually reduced along the way from the northern mountains and south-east coast area to the central region.

关 键 词：降水 频率 空间插值 天津 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]