中国历史上和未来CFC-11和CFC-12的排放量计算  

Estimated historical and future emissions of CFC-11 and CFC-12 in China

作　　者：王凤[1] 张剑波[1] 冯金敏[2] 刘德英[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室(北京大学),北京100871 [2]北京大学计算中心,北京100871

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2010年第9期1758-1765,共8页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：环保公益性行业科研专项(No.200709015)~~

摘　　要：基于CFC-11(CCl3F)和CFC-12(CCl2F2)在家用制冷、工商制冷、汽车空调、气雾剂、烟草和泡沫等应用行业的消费数据、淘汰进程等计算了中国历年CFC-11和CFC-12的消费量,进而利用相应的排放方程计算了其历年排放量及未来的预测排放量.计算结果表明,从1978年中国开始消费到将来完全淘汰CFCs为止,中国CFC-11和CFC-12的总消费量分别为39.79×104t和40.97×104t.与国际公约对中国的要求相比,仅CFC-11和CFC-12,中国就少消费了19.78×104t ODP(臭氧层耗损潜能值)的CFCs物质.中国CFC-11和CFC-12的总排放量分别为全球1950～1999年50年间排放量的4.66%和3.16%,人均排放量及单位国土面积排放量均远远低于全球平均水平.In this paper,the historical and future consumptions of CFC-11 and CFC-12 in China are estimated based on the consumption data and phase-out process in all CFC-11 and CFC-12 application sectors such as household refrigeration,industrial and commercial refrigeration,automobile air conditioners,as well as the aerosol,tobacco and foam sectors.Annual emissions in the past and future were calculated according to the consumptions and corresponding emission equations.Results show that the total consumptions of CFC-11 and CFC-12 in China are 397,900 and 409,700 tons respectively during the period from 1978 when the CFCs first came into use to the year when CFCs will be eliminated.This means that the CFC-11 and CFC-12 consumptions in China are 197,800 tons less than the required target of the Protocol.The total emissions of CFC-11 and CFC-12 in China are 4.66% and 3.16% of global emissions from 1950 to 1999,with per capita emission and per unit area emission much lower than the global average.

关 键 词：行业 消费量 排放量 议定书 

分 类 号：X506[环境科学与工程—环境工程]