川东石炭系新区天然气开发早期动态预测模型  

A PREDICTED MODEL OF EARLY PERFORMANCE ON GAS DEVELOPMENT IN NWE AREA OF SICHUAN CARBONIFEROUS

作　　者：匡建超[1] 曹伟[1] 王允诚[1] 王宏[1] 李华明[2] 蒲家奇 陈淑芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工学院 [2]四川石油管理局川东开发公司

出　　处：《矿物岩石》1999年第1期49-54,共6页Mineralogy and Petrology

基　　金：四川石油管理局<川东石炭系新区天然气生产能力早期预测>项目资助

摘　　要：川东石炭系新区大多数气藏尚未进入或结束评价阶段，资料不足而不具备进行数值模拟编制早期开发方案的条件。为了高速高效开发气藏及编制矿区上产规划，就必须选择适当的方法进行新区早期动态预测。本文正是基于此，特提出递推滚动ＢＰ神经网络预测模型。利用老区不同类型气藏的已建模型，对新区不同采气速度下，稳产期和递减期地层压力的变化规律、最终采出程度的大小进行了预测。预测精度与传统的数值模拟方法相当，更具有简便快速的优点。Most gas reservoires have not started or finished evaluation stage in new area of east Sichuan Carboniferous,because information is rare and numerical simulation can not be done.To develop gas reservoires on high speed and high efficiency and to draw up plan of production,it must choose proper method to predict early performance of new area.Based on this point,this paper presented a model of recurrent and rolling BP network.Using established model of different typical reservoir in old area can predict changes of pressure and recovery in stable period and decline period on different speed of gas production.Comparing to the traditional numerical simulation,the predicted accuracy of this model is nearly the same and this model is easy and fast.

关 键 词：石炭系 新区 天然气 开发早期 动态预测模型 

分 类 号：P618.130.8[天文地球—矿床学] TE319[天文地球—地质学]