运行风险评估中的变压器时变停运模型(二)基于延迟半马尔可夫过程的变压器时变停运模型  

Time-varying Transformer Outage Model for Operational Risk Assessment Part Two Time-varying Transformer Outage Model Based on Delayed Semi-Markov Process

作　　者：宁辽逸[1] 吴文传[1] 张伯明[1] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统国家重点实验室,清华大学电机系,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2010年第16期24-28,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217908);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50707013)~~

摘　　要：建立了用于电力系统运行风险评估的变压器时变停运模型。首先,根据变压器事故停运的特性,将其状态划分为运行状态、内部潜伏性故障状态和外部附件故障状态。然后,建立了基于延迟半马尔可夫过程的变压器时变停运模型。该模型既能够反映变压器内部故障和外部故障在修复时间上的区别,又能够反映变压器内部潜伏性故障在维修前后故障率的变化。最后,利用数值算例验证了所提出的模型的科学性。A time-varying transformer outage model for operational risk assessment is proposed.Firstly,the state of a transformer is classified into three states： operation state,failure state caused by external accessory fault and failure state caused by internal latent fault.These three states can closely represent the operating mechanism in the developing process of transformer＇s outages.A time-varying outage model based on delayed semi-Markov process is proposed subsequently.This model can accommodate the difference in repairing time between the two failure states,as well as the impact of maintenance on the internal latent failure rate.Finally,a numerical example is provided to verify the proposed model.

关 键 词：运行风险评估 时变停运模型 变压器 瞬时状态概率 故障率 半马尔可夫过程 延迟更新过程 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]