贸易方式转变对经济增长影响的实证研究:基于江浙两省模式的对比  

Empirical Analysis on Impact of Transition of Trade Mode to Economic Growth:Comparison between Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces

作　　者：章安平[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江金融职业学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2010年第9期50-58,共9页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：浙江省2009年度新世纪高等教育教学改革项目(yb09097)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文运用协整理论与Granger因果检验方法对浙江、江苏两省贸易方式与经济增长相关性进行实证研究,证实了"浙江模式"与"苏南模式"在外贸领域的存在。浙江省一般贸易的进、出口与其经济增长之间存在Granger因果关系,进一步对变量间脉冲响应函数进行分析发现,浙江省一般贸易进口对其经济增长的影响远不及江苏省一般贸易进口的影响,说明浙江省进口贸易的技术溢出效应发挥不显著。相比较而言,江苏省经济增长则受其加工贸易的影响更加明显,然而江苏省加工贸易出口与经济增长却无法通过Granger检验,脉冲响应函数反映江苏省加工贸易出口对其GDP增长的影响程度存在较大的随机性,加工贸易尚无法构成江苏省GDP增长的稳定因素,说明加工贸易的转型升级是实现江苏省开放型经济可持续发展必须正视的问题。Based on the data of general trade and processing trade in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, this paper adopts cointegration theory and Granger causality test methods to supply evidence of existance of both ＂Zhejiang Mode＂ and ＂Jiangsu Mode＂ in the field of foreign trade. There exists conintegration relation among the general trade import and export and the growth of GDP in Zhejiang province, while the growth of GDP in Jiangsu province is sensitive to the processing trade. Furthermore, the impulse response function is used to measure the impact of the trade mode to the growth of GDE The results show that the impact of general trade import to the growth of GDP in Zhejiang province is not as import as it did in Jiangsu province. Another result in the paper shows that the processing export and the growth of GDP in Jiangsu province can＇ t pass the Granger causality test. It means that processing trade has not been a stable factor promoting the growth of GDP in Jiangsu province. So the conclusion for this is that the transition of processing trade is extremely urgent.

关 键 词：贸易方式 经济增长 相关性分析 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]