地震引发城市燃气管线事故的定量风险评价  

Quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by earthquake for urban natural gas-carried pipelines

作　　者：操铮[1] 刘茂[1] 张秀华[2] 吕彦[2] 徐伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]中国市政工程华北设计研究总院,天津3000874

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2010年第4期204-209,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAJ16B03-08; 2006BAJ16B08)

摘　　要：为了对地震作为诱发事件导致燃气管线的风险进行量化,提出了地震引发城市燃气管线事故的定量风险评价程序,基于离散化的地震PCA值和地震预期重现时间给出可能的损坏概率和参考事故场景,并进行事故场景的后果评价,最终实现燃气管线个人风险和社会风险的表征。此外,基于Matlab编写了适用于该风险评价程序的GUI程序,结合淮南市城市次高压燃气管线的具体实例,实现了风险表征并研究了地震参数变化对风险变化的影响。Earthquake can cause severe damage to urban pipelines that carrying natural gas and may induce accidents such as jet fire and vapor cloud explosion. Therefore, in order to quantify the risk of city gas pipelines that triggered by seismic events, a set of quantitative risk assessment procedures is proposed for city gas pipelines accidents. Based on discrete values of PGA and expected earthquake return time, the procedures provide possible damage probability to the pipelines and also reference accident scenarios. In this paper, jet fire and vapor cloud explosion are considered as the reference scenarios. According to the accident scenarios, the authors have also evaluated the consequences corresponding to different PGA values. Both proba- bility of death and accident happening were calculated by using ＇ probit＇ function which is widely used in the quantitative risk assessment methods. Combining death probability and happening probability of accident scenarios, characterizations of individual risk and societal risk due to gas pipelines are presented at the end of procedure. The procedures of risk calculation are realized with MATLAB-based risk assessment program with a specific example of Huainan City＇ s subhigh pressure gas pipelines. Moreover, the authors have studied the change of seismic parameters that impact on the risk changes. The numbers of death under 10^-4, 10^-5 and 10^-6 risk levels were also predicted with different PGA values. The results showed that individual and societal risk due to earthquake is relatively higher compared to those without earthquake happening. Individual risk map of Huainan was also presented in this paper. In addition, the results showed that this quantitative risk assessment procedures set is practicable because of simple calculation and ability to meet the needs of engineering applications. Based on the calculated results, the decision makers can come out with some proper adjustments or layout plans to ultimately reduce the loss of life and property.

关 键 词：安全工程 风险评价 地震 燃气管线 个人风险 社会风险 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]