货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性——基于我国1999～2009年数据的实证分析  

The Effectiveness Analysis on Money Supply as the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy——Based on 1999-2009 Data

作　　者：何林[1] 吕红娟[1] 何炼成[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2010年第9期80-87,共8页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：陕西师范大学"211工程"三期建设项目"中国特色社会主义发展经济学"(09J63)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：本文基于货币供应量与产出、物价水平的一般关系的理论分析,采用计量经济学方法对货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性进行了实证分析,结果表明货币供应量作为中介目标与产出的相关性比较好,但跟物价的相关性比较弱,所以在一定程度上存在与实体经济相脱节的现象。造成这一现象的原因主要是货币供应量具有内生性,中央银行对其可控性正在逐渐减弱。This paper theoretical analyses the general relationship between money supply, output and the price level. Then empirically analyses the effectiveness of money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. The results show the money supply as an intermediate target has the better correlation with the output, but weak correlation with prices Therefore, there is a certain extent out of touch with the real economy. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the money supply is endogenous and the central bank is losing its controllability.

关 键 词：货币供应量 产出 消费价格指数 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]