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作 者:杨娟[1] 王昌全[1] 夏建国[1] 张文秀[2] 白根川[2] 张毅[1]
机构地区:[1]四川农业大学资源环境学院,四川雅安625014 [2]四川农业大学经济管理学院,四川雅安625014
出 处:《土壤学报》2010年第5期847-856,共10页Acta Pedologica Sinica
基 金:四川省教育厅土地资源信息实验室项目(2006ZD003)资助
摘 要:以1996年和2005年东坡土地利用现状为基础数据,基于元胞自动机模型,假设了东坡区2006~2014年的三种规划目标,并相应给出了三种规划方案。在充分挖掘数据的前提下,使多要素共同转化为CA-Markov模型的转化规则,分别模拟出了三种规划方案下的2014年东坡区土地利用数量及空间变化情景。结果表明,以基本农田保护和退耕还林为目的,既考虑土地整理又考虑城市发展方向的规划方案3的发展模式最为"理想"。分析了这种"理想"规划方案下2014年东坡区土地利用数量及空间演化情景与2005年现状的对比情形,并提出了相应的政策措施。With the land use status of Dongpo in 1996 and in 2005 cited as basic data,three land use planning targets were predicted for the Dongpo District,based on Cellular Automata Modeling,and three planning schemes were put forth correspondingly.Under the precondition of sufficient data mining,and by following the transformation rule of transferring numerous elements simultaneously into CA-Markov,changes in amount and space of land use in Dongpo District in 2014 were simulated separately according to the three different planning schemes.Results show that of the three planning schemes,the one oriented towards protection of basic farmland and "Grain for Green",and consideration of both land consolidation and city development was the most ideal.Changes of land use in amount and space in 2014 predicted according to the most ideal planning scheme were analyzed and compared with the status of land use in 2005 and corresponding policies and measures were put forward.
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