清洁发展机制项目开发中的不确定性风险研究  

The Uncertainty Risk of CDM Project Development

作　　者：周胜[1] 佟庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《生态经济》2010年第9期26-29,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划重大项目"全球环境变化应对技术研究与示范"(2007BAC03A04)

摘　　要：清洁发展机制(CDM)项目在开发过程中的各个阶段都面临着不确定性风险,不同减排项目类型和减排规模差别较大,如何量化这些不确定性风险以及考虑交易成本后的市场吸引力,对CDM项目各参与方具有重要意义。考虑现有数据基础和可获得性,文章采用概率风险分析方法,对与CDM直接相关的不确定性因素进行研究,并以风电项目和废能回收项目为例,进行量化分析。结果表明,CDM规则日趋复杂化和缺乏可操作性是目前CDM项目开发的主要障碍。因此,未来CDM规则改进的主要方向在于,增加CDM规则的可操作性,减少方法学的复杂性,采用简化、客观的额外性评价方法。The uncertainty risk will be inevitably faced with during all the development stages of the Clean Development Mechanism（CDM） project.Different types and scales of emission reduction projects mean different uncertainty.Then how to quantify such uncertainty risk,as well as the market attractiveness considering the transaction costs,is very important for the relative project participants.In this paper,considering the basis of existing data and availability,probabilistic risk analysis method is adopted to analyze the uncertainties directly associated with CDM project,and the quantitative analysis is carried out based on the case of wind power project and waste recovery project.Results show that the current CDM rules increasing complexity and lack of operability are the major obstacle.Therefore,the main direction of the CDM rule improvement is to increase CDM operable,to reduce the complexity of the methodology,to demonstrate the additionally through a more simplif ied,objective method.

关 键 词：清洁发展机制 不确定性风险 市场潜力 交易成本 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]