登陆中国的热带气旋强度和频数物理统计预测模型及其应用  

AN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY PREDICTION MODEL FOR CHINA-LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ITS APPLICATION

作　　者：翁向宇[1] 胡丽甜[1] 李晓娟[1] 谢定升[1] 梁健[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州中心气象台,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2010年第4期470-474,共5页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局2008年业务建设项目子专题"热带气旋分级预测的物理统计模型";广东省气象局"广州区域精细化气象要素预报业务系统"(2007E01)项目共同资助

摘　　要：使用1949—2008年美国的再分析资料及中国热带气旋年鉴,分析60年来北半球500 hPa高度场和海面温度场与登陆中国热带气旋(以下简称TC)的强度和频数显著相关区的统计特征及其物理意义。选取相关系数高的格点构成组合因子,建立二项式曲线预测模型,制作登陆我国热带气旋的年、月强度和频数预测。检验结果表明,该模型有较高的拟合能力,在业务中可广泛应用。Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and information of China-landfalling tropical cyclones （hereafter CLTC） in 1949--2008, significantly correlated areas with intensity, frequency and intensity peak of CLTC in the 500 mb height field and the sea surface temperature （SST） are investigated for application in weather/climate forecast. A yearly and monthly intensity and frequency prediction model of binomial curve fitting for CLTC is established by choosing the grid points with high correlation coefficients as combination factors. The forecast experiment shows that the model could be used in forecast practice for its high fitting capability and good prediction performance.

关 键 词：气候预测 二项式预测模型 登陆中国TC 强度和频数 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]