基于SD的我国油气资源——社会经济系统协调发展政策仿真  

Policy Simulation of Coordinate Development for China's Oil-gas Resources and Social Economy System Based on SD

作　　者：安贵鑫[1] 张在旭[1] 张晓慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东东营257061

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2010年第17期231-237,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"提高我国石油工业控制力和国际竞争力的研究"(05BJY050);山东省自然科学基金研究项目"黄河三角洲可再生资源调查与利用研究"(Y2008H37)

摘　　要：随着世界经济的高速发展,油气资源对人类社会经济发展的影响和制约作用也越来越明显。在建立了我国油气资源—社会经济系统协调发展SD模型基础上,将SD模型分为五个子系统,并对每个子系统的因果关系图、流图进行了详细的分析,通过一致性检验、结构验证以及合理性和有效性验证,说明了模型的有效性和可行性。并运用SD模型进行了政策分析以及系统动态仿真,通过对比各种方案的仿真结果,找出我国油气资源—社会经济系统协调发展的方向。With the rapid development of world economy,the constraints of oil-gas resources are becoming more and more obvious for the human social economy development.The paper established the SD model of coordinate development for China＇s oil-gas resources and social economy system which was divided into five sub-systems.It also analyzed the cause and effect map and flow chart of each sub-system,the verification of consistency and structure.With rationality and effectiveness,the model showed the effectiveness and feasibility.It analyzed the policy and system dynamics simulation with the use of SD model,by comparing the simulation results of a variety of programs,the paper found out the direction of coordinate development for China＇s oil-gas resources and social economy system.

关 键 词：系统动力学 油气资源 社会经济 协调发展 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F224