上海地区台风条件风速和雨强联合概率分布统计  

Statistical analysis of wind velocity and rainfall intensity joint probability distribution of Shanghai area in typhoon condition

作　　者：武占科[1,2] 赵林[2] 葛耀君[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑设计研究院,上海200092 [2]同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《空气动力学学报》2010年第4期393-399,共7页Acta Aerodynamica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(90715039);科技部国家重点实验室基础研究资助项目(SLDRCE08-C-02)联合资助

摘　　要：选取上海市崇明岛侯家镇气象站纪录的47个台风最大10min时距平均风速和最大雨强作为样本,使用不同的概率分布模型分别对风速和雨强的概率分布参数进行拟合并作拟合优度比较,提出台风条件下风速和雨强联合概率分布函数。优化结果表明,Gumbel Copula函数联合概率分布模型和极值Ⅰ型联合概率分布模型适合描述台风条件下风速和雨强联合概率分布,其中Gumbel Copula函数联合概率分布模型中风速和雨强各自的概率分布模型分别采用极值Ⅲ型概率分布模型和Gamma分布模型。47 measured data of typhoon wind speed and rainfall intensity of Chongming Island Houjia weather station in Shanghai are taken as the data samples.The probability distribution models of wind speed and rainfall intensity are carried out and fitting results are compared respectively.Wind speed and rainfall intensity joint probability distribution models are constructed in typhoon condition.The result shows that wind speed and rainfall intensity joint probability distribution can be described by Gumbel Copula function and extreme value type Ⅰ joint probability distribution model preferably,and Gumbel Copula function consist of extreme value type Ⅲ joint probability distribution model for wind speed and Gamma distribution model for rainfall intensity.

关 键 词：台风 风速和雨强 联合概率分布 

分 类 号：V211.3[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]