变权重组合模型在路基沉降预测中的应用  

The Application of the Variable-Weight Combination Forecasting Method in Settlement Prediction of Roadbed

作　　者：郭亚宇[1,2] 庞旭卿[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院,陕西渭南714000 [2]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《河南科学》2010年第9期1170-1173,共4页Henan Science

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技项目(200131836115)

摘　　要：通过对软土路基沉降发展规律及其沉降曲线特点的深入研究,结合4种单项软土路基沉降预测模型提供不同的有价值预测信息的特点,引进重组合预测思想,在单项预测模型的基础上提出了路基沉降变权重组合预测方法,工程实例分析表明,利用该模型与方法得到的预测曲线与实测曲线吻合良好,能够满足工程要求,此外,变权重组合预测模型比其它单项模型具有明显的优越性,为软土路基沉降发展预测提供了一种有效而实用的方法.Through a thorough study on the settlement development regularity of soft clay embankment,based on the characteristics that four different settlement forecast model of soft roadbed offer different valuable forecasting information,the forecasting thought of combination forecasting was imported. Based on single prediction model, the variable-weight combination forecasting was proposed. The analytical result of engineering practice indicates that the forecasting curve obtained by this model and method can fit well the measured curve,which can meet engineering demand;What＇s more,the variable -weight combination forecasting model is obviously superior to other single model so as to provide an effective and practical method for forecasting settlement development of soft clay embankments.

关 键 词：软土路基 沉降预测 组合预测 变权重组合预测 

分 类 号：U416.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]