引信可靠性小样本评估方法研究  

Method of Fuse Reliability Evaluation Based on Small Size of Sample

作　　者：周利东[1] 温玉全[1] 王玮[1] 王军波[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室 [2]中国人民解放军63961部队

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报》2010年第7期761-764,770,共5页Transactions of Beijing Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家部委预研项目(51305010303)

摘　　要：研究引信作用可靠性的小样本评估方法.把功能模拟试验信息作为Bayes可靠性评估的先验信息,有效地减少了样本量.针对先验信息的融合问题,采用等效折算和CMSR方法得到系统的等效成败型数据,分析其与靶试数据的联系和差异,推导出继承因子,避免了靶试数据被淹没情况的发生.通过实例,说明了该方法的合理性和可行性.A method of fuse reliability evaluation based on small size of sample was developed.Using the information coming from the simulation tests as the prior information of Bayes evaluation method,the size of sample could be reduced effectively.To deal with the problem of prior information fusion,the equivalent binomial data of the system were calculated by using equivalent-conversion and CMSR approaches.The correlation of binomial data with the data coming from the field test was analyzed and the inheritance factor was deduced,which would avoid the obliteration of field test information.The evaluation results of typical example show the feasibility and reasonability of the proposed method.

关 键 词：系统工程 可靠性评估 引信 BAYES方法 混合Beta先验分布 

分 类 号：TJ430.62[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]