北京快速更新循环预报系统(BJ-RUC)模式探空质量评估分析  

Assessment and Analysis of Sounding Information Obtained from Beijing Rapid Update Cycle Forecast System

作　　者：魏东[1] 尤凤春[1] 范水勇[2] 杨波[1] 陈敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象台,北京100089 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《气象》2010年第8期72-80,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目课题"城市群高影响天气预报系统的集成和业务示范"(2008BAC37B05);中国气象局2008新技术推广项目"基于LAPS的数据融合系统应用研究"和中国气象局北京城市气象研究所城市气象科学研究基金项目(UMRF200706)共同资助

摘　　要：快速更新循环(Rapid Update Cycle)预报技术在国外已有多年研究并用于日常业务数年。北京市气象局2007年在国内建立了首家快速更新循环预报系统(BJ-RUC),并成功应用于奥运气象保障服务。使用单站(54511)实况探空,检验分析了BJ-RUC系统的探空预报性能。分析结果表明,BJ-RUC预报的模式探空与实况各要素的变化趋势有很好的一致性。其中,温度预报与实况相关性最好,风的预报次之,露点温度(尤其400 hPa以上)最差。对不同层次各要素的预报,中层最好,低层次之,高层较差。系统预报的温度、露点温度和南风分量偏大,风速和西风分量偏小。BJ-RUC对温度和中低层露点温度的预报系统误差明显,可以通过对初始场的订正等方法对其进行系统订正。初始时刻各要素与实况的相关性最好,各预报时效误差分布趋势与初始场的一致。大多数情况下,随着时效的增长预报误差增大。BJ-RUC对基本要素的预报误差使得系统对K指数预报平均偏大、CAPE偏小、高空垂直风切变偏小。但系统对K指数、CAPE和高低空垂直风切变等物理量的变化趋势预报较准确。无论基本要素,还是计算的物理参量,12小时时效内的预报误差较小、与实况的一致性较好,在短时临近预报中具有较高的参考价值。Using the sounding data of Beijing meteorological station（station ID：54511） in the summer of 2008（1 June to 31 August） as the observed data,the sounding forecasting performances of Beijing rapid update cycle of assimilation forecast system（BJ-RUC） were analyzed in detail from the aspects of different levels,elements and forecast range.The results showed that the meteorological elements of the BJ-RUC system have a very good consistency with the real sounding results.The forecast results have better performance in the mid-layer than the higher and lower layers.For different meteorological elements,the forecasting capability to the temperature and wind is superior over other elements,and the performance of the humidity is the worst.The forecasting results of the temperature,humidity and southerly wind are too big,but results of the westerly wind are too small.The forecasting performance becomes worse with the increasing of the forecast range,and the results within 12 hours initialed from 12 UTC is better especially. The forecast results of temperature and dew point temperature of mid-lower layer can be revised with system errors.In general,the forecasting sounding information of BJ-RUC has a superior performance within 12 hours,which is very useful to the very-short range weather forecast.

关 键 词：BJ-RUC 数值预报模式 探空 评估分析 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]