逐步判别分析法在筛选泥石流评价因子中的应用  

Application of stepwise discriminant analysis to screening evaluation factors of debris flow

作　　者：孟凡奇[1] 李广杰[1] 李明[1] 马建全[1] 汪茜[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,长春130026

出　　处：《岩土力学》2010年第9期2925-2929,共5页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国土资源部地质灾害调查项目(国土资环函[2007]22号)

摘　　要：运用逐步判别分析原理,在多个评价因子中按其对泥石流沟判别能力贡献的大小进行筛选,从而确定泥石流沟的评价因子。应用改进的层次分析法对筛选后的评价因子进行赋权,使求得的判断矩阵满足一致性要求,避免了层次分析法后期检验过程中多次调整判断矩阵带来的过于主观性的问题。在评价因子的筛选和赋权的基础上进行了单沟泥石流危险度评价的实例验证,结果表明,运用逐步判别分析法筛选后的评价因子客观、准确地反映了当地泥石流危险度的影响因素,与传统方法所得危险度结果相比更符合泥石流危险度实际情况,可靠性更强。Screening multiple factors according to their contribution to the debris flow is carried out based on the principle of stepwise discriminant analysis.And then the weights for screened evaluation factors are determined based on improved analytic hierarchy process;so that judgment matrix can meet the consistency requirements,avoiding the high-subjectivity in adjusting the judgment matrix during post-test.The site-specific debris flow risk is evaluated with example verification based on the screening and weight determining of evaluation factors.The results show that the screened factors actually reflect local debris flow risk;and they are closer to the actual situation comparing to traditional methods.

关 键 词：逐步判别分析法 评价因子 筛选 改进层次分析法 泥石流 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]