区带资源量预测和线性规划方法及应用  

Method of Resource Forecast and Linear Programming in Exploration Area and Its Application

作　　者：刘国全[1] 刘子藏[1] 李宏军[1] 贾丽[1] 吴雪松[1] 王冠[1] 汪津[1] 王永凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大港油田勘探开发研究院,天津300280

出　　处：《天然气地球科学》2010年第4期627-631,共5页Natural Gas Geoscience

摘　　要：根据不同区带类型,选取相应的资源量计算公式,引入蒙特卡罗法,建立了含油面积、有效厚度、有效孔隙度、原始含油饱和度等随机变量的分布模型;结合原油相对密度、地层体积系数等常量,利用成熟算法和程序进行计算,得到了区带资源量概率分布;据此,结合区带风险概率评价成果,利用线性规划方法,以区带资源量、储量成本、增储目标、各区储量分配及不同类型储量比例等因素为基础,编写了约束条件和目标函数,建立了线性规划模型,得到了最优勘探区带组合。认为区带资源量的科学预测是勘探方案编制的基础,而线性规划方法可为勘探方案编制的科学性提供保障。According to exploration area features,we select the appropriate formula to calculate the amount of resource,and use the Monte Carlo method to establish the randomly distributed models of oil-bearing area,effective thickness,and effective porosity and initial oil saturation.In combined with relative density of crude oil and formation volume factor,we use the sophisticated algorithms and procedures to get the potential distribution of exploration area resource.In consideration of probabilistic risk assessment,resource amount,reserves cost,objectives of the different zones and the ratio of each reserves types,we use the linear programming method to enact the constrained conditions and objective function,and then we establish linear programming model and get the optimum combination of exploration zones.The scientific prediction of exploration area resource is a basis for exploration proposal,and the linear programming method can give a guarantee for the exploration proposal.

关 键 词：勘探区带 资源量预测 勘探规划 组合 

分 类 号：TE132[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]