ENSO与我国东部夏季雨型异常关系的年代际变化  

Interdecadal change of relationship between ENSO and the summer rain pattern of eastern China

作　　者：许婷婷[1,2] 郭品文[1,2] 谢洁[2] 严小静[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第4期367-372,共6页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：利用1951—2002年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、CPC(气候预测中心)Nino3区海表温度序列和NOAA的ERSST资料,研究了ENSO与我国东部夏季雨型的相互关系及其年代际变化.结果表明:我国东部夏季雨型对ENSO事件的响应在1978年有一个明显的突变,在突变前,降水雨型与赤道东太平洋的海温为弱的负相关,而在突变后转为显著的正相关;滑动相关结果显示,近20a是整个研究时段中二者相关性最强的时期;东亚夏季风和ENSO的相互关系在1978年也经历了一次明显的年代际变化,由弱的正相关转为显著的负相关.这可能是引起ENSO和夏季雨型异常关系年代际变化的原因.Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the CPC（Climate Prediction Center） monthly SST data of the Nino3 region as well as the ERSST data by NOAA during 1951—2002,the relation and its interdecadal change of the ENSO and the summer rain pattern of eastern China was studied.Results show：The response of the summer rain pattern of eastern China to ENSO abruptly changed in 1978.Before 1977,the correlation between them denotes weakly negative.After the abrupt change,it turned to significantly positive.Moreover,the sliding correlation shows that the relationship between them is the strongest during recent 20 years.Further analysis results also show that the correlation between ENSO and the EASM experienced similar interdecadal change,changing from weakly positive to significantly positive,which may leads to the interdecadal change of the ENSO and the summer rain pattern of eastern China.

关 键 词：ENSO 夏季雨型 赤道东太平洋海温 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]