油松毛虫发生的灰色预测模型  

GREY MODEL FOR PROJECTING THE BURST OF DENDROLIMUS TABULAEFORM IS TSAI ET LIU

作　　者：屠泉洪 夏乃斌[1] 邵海荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学

出　　处：《生态学报》1990年第3期261-265,共5页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金："六五"国家攻关项目

摘　　要：本文应用灰色系统(grey system)理论建立油松毛虫越冬幼虫(hibernnating larvae of Chinese-pinecaterpillar)种群数量的灰色方程,利用上一年上树(或下树)平均虫口数预测上一年上树(或下树)平均虫口数,或利用上一年下树的平均虫口数预测下一年上树的平均虫口数。所建模型经检验预报精度在90％以上。In this paper, the theor of gre s stem was applied to set up a grey equation for the population size of the hibernating larvae of Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu, in which the average number of the caterpillar climbing up or down trees in the previous year was used to project that in the next year.The aveiage number of the caterpiller climbing down trees in the previous year alone can also be used to predict the average number of the caterpillar that may climb up trees in the next year. The model Set up has been tested to have a forecasting accuracy of higher than 90%.

关 键 词：灰色系统 灰色预测模型 油松毛虫 

分 类 号：Q141[生物学—生态学]