市场不确定条件下煤间接液化技术经济分析  

Techno-economic analysis of indirect coal-to-liquid process with market uncertainty

作　　者：周文戟[1] 朱兵[1] 王伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学化学工程系,生态工业研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第9期1432-1436,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(20876087)

摘　　要：该文针对中国煤间接液化技术经济评价中的市场不确定性,建立煤间接液化技术经济分析模型,分析煤间接液化产品成本的主要组成及影响因素,同时引入表征不确定市场的若干变量,并通过Monte Carlo模拟的方法量化考察市场不确定条件下煤间接液化技术的经济性以及各风险因素对生产成本的影响。结果显示:当前不确定的煤炭市场条件下,仅当国际油价处于近100美元/桶的高位时,中国煤间接液化才具有低风险的经济可行性;同时煤价变化与煤间接液化装置运行程度对其成本有较大影响。To address the market uncertainty faced by assessing the indirect coal-to-liquids process in China,a techno-economic model was used to analyze the production cost of the indirect coal-to-liquids process and to assess the key factors affecting the costs in an uncertain energy market.Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the techno-economics of the process,as well as the impacts of different risky factors.The results show that only if the oil price is at nearly 100 USD/barrel will the process become economically feasible in a low risk environment based on current uncertain coal market in China.In addition,fluctuating coal prices and operating capacity have large impacts on the costs with market uncertainty.

关 键 词：煤间接液化 技术经济分析 市场不确定性 

分 类 号：TQ-9[化学工程] F407.7[经济管理—产业经济]