全球经济再平衡：美国和中国的角色  

The Rebalancing of Global Economy:The Role of United States and China

作　　者：张明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院,北京100732

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2010年第9期132-148,共17页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：全球金融危机后,国际收支失衡的演进具有较强的不确定性,全球经济再平衡有赖各主要失衡国的集体努力。内部失衡与外部失衡的交互作用提供了分析全球经济失衡的系统框架。从储蓄-投资缺口导致经常账户失衡的视角来看,美国持续的经常账户赤字可归因于私人部门储蓄率的下降,而中国持续的经常账户盈余可归因于政府与企业储蓄率的上升。从汇率失调与进出口管制导致经常账户失衡的视角来看,美国的经常账户赤字可归因于美元汇率高估与出口管制;中国的经常账户盈余可归因于人民币汇率低估与扭曲的出口退税制度。为实现全球经济再平衡,美国应提高私人部门储蓄率、避免财政赤字继续恶化、让美元适当贬值、促进高科技革命、放松高科技产品出口限制、限制贸易保护主义政策等,中国应改变国民收入初次分配失衡、完善人民币汇率形成机制、加速要素价格市场化改革、取消扭曲性出口刺激政策等。After the global financial crisis,the evolution of global imbalance faces strong uncertainties.The rebalancing of global economy depends on the collective actions of major countries.From the perspective that saving-investment gap results in current account imbalance,the persistent current account deficit of the United States could be attributed to the decline of private saving rates,and the persistent current account surplus of China to the surge of government and corporate saving rates.From the perspective that exchange misalignment and controls on export and import result in current account imbalance,the current account deficit of U.S.could be attributed to USD’s overvaluation and the control on export of high-tech products,and the current account surplus of China to RMB’s undervaluation and distorted tax rebate system.To rebalance the global economy,on the one side,United States should boost private saving rate,avoid the exacerbation of fiscal deficit,depreciate USD at a controllable pace,promote new technological revolution,loose the control on high-tech export,and fight against trade protectionism,etc;On the other side,China should change its income distribution imbalance between government,corporate and household,improve the RMB exchange rate regime,speed up the reform of domestic commodity prices,and cancel the distorting export promotion policies.

关 键 词：全球失衡 再平衡 全球金融危机 储蓄投资缺口 汇率 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]