计及风电场发电功率不确定性的电力系统模糊潮流  

Fuzzy Modelling and Solution of Load Flow Incorporating Uncertainties of Wind Farm Generation

作　　者：洪芦诚[1] 石立宝[1] 姚良忠[2] Masoud Bazargan 倪以信[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学深圳研究生院电力系统国家重点实验室深圳研究室,深圳518055 [2]AREVA输配电集团技术中心

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2010年第8期116-122,130,共8页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家重点基础研究专项经费(2004CB217900);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(200800031068)资助项目

摘　　要：风速随机性与间歇性的存在,给大型风电场并网后电力系统的稳定运行提出了新的问题和挑战。本文应用概率统计及模糊集的相关理论对计及风电场发电功率不确定性的电力系统模糊潮流计算进行了研究。首先取给定参数值的威布尔曲线作为风速概率统计分布,并基于随机模糊相容性原理,将其转换成风速的可能性分布,再结合笼型异步风力发电机的风速-功率关系特性曲线建立了风力发电机组出力的非线性模糊模型;并在对该模糊模型线性化的基础上,采用基于潮流分析灵敏度的方法对系统模糊交流潮流的可能性分布进行了求解。最后给出了计及风电场的IEEE14算例系统下的仿真结果。The intermittent and fluctuant nature of wind generation is posing great new issues and challenges to the planning and operation of interconnected power systems with high penetration of grid-connected wind farms. In this paper,the probability theory and fuzzy sets theory are employed to carry out systematic and thorough studies on power system fuzzy load flow calculation incorporating uncertainties of wind farm generation. The Weibull distribution curve with specified parameters is simulated as the wind speed probability density distribution,and with the possibility/probability consistency principle（PPCP）,the wind speed probability density distribution is first transformed to the wind speed possibility distribution. In accordance with simplified power-speed curve of squirrel cage induction generator （SCIG）,the fuzzy model of SCIG power output is then built. The proposed fuzzy model is linearized further for simplicity. The sensitivity analysis based method is also employed to carry out the possibility distribution of fuzzy load flow solutions. Numerical results based on a modified IEEE 14-bus system demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed models and methods.

关 键 词：风速间歇性 笼型异步风力发电机 概率密度 模糊集理论 交流潮流 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]