税种划分对地方财政收入稳定效应的实证研究  

The Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Tax Division to Stability of Local Fiscal Revenue

作　　者：孔刘柳[1] 谢乔昕[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《税务与经济》2010年第5期98-103,共6页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：上海市教委重点学科建设项目"经济系统运行与调控"(项目编号:J50504)子课题;上海市研究生创新基金(项目编号:JWCXSL1002)阶段性成果

摘　　要：在分析税种划分对地方财政收入稳定性影响的作用机理的基础上,利用1998～2007年数据,实证分析了增值税等四个地方财政收入主要来源对于地方财政收入稳定性的影响。总体回归结果显示:个人所得税、营业税占地方财政收入的比重对地方财政收入波动性构成正向解释,增值税占地方财政收入比重则对地方财政收入波动性构成负向解释;企业所得税划分方式及分享比例的变革对地方财政收入稳定性构成了显著影响。In the analysis on the mechanism of the tax division on the stability of local financial revenue,using 1998-2007 data,this paper made an empirical analysis of the sources of local fiscal revenue,the value-added tax and other three taxes,to the stability of local fiscal revenue.The regression result showed that personal income tax,business tax on the proportion of total local revenues constitute positive explanation to the volatility of local fiscal revenues;the value-added tax on the proportion constitutes a negative explanation to the volatility;the innovations of the division mode of corporate income tax and the re-setting of sharing proportion of the tax revenue have made significant impacts on the volatility.Based on the analysis,some innovations and arrangements of tax division system are proposed.

关 键 词：地方财政收入 税种划分 稳定性 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]