南水北调西线工程水源区河流与黄河的丰枯遭遇分析  

Analysis of wetness-dryness encountering probability among water source rivers and the Yellow River in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

作　　者：冯平[1] 牛军宜[1] 张永[1,2] 侯红雨[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]水电水利规划设计总院,北京100011 [3]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利学报》2010年第8期900-907,共8页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579049)

摘　　要：针对目前二维联合分布模型不能同时分析多条河流的丰枯遭遇特性,运用四元Copula连接函数构造了鲜水河、足木足河、绰斯甲河以及黄河上游兰州水文站天然径流系列的四维联合分布,研究了南水北调西线工程水源区河流与受水区黄河上游的丰枯遭遇问题。结果表明,如果不考虑黄河上游兰州水文站丰与水源区河流非全枯的组合,则有利于调水的丰枯遭遇频率为43.8%;如果把兰州水文站丰与水源区河流非全枯的组合考虑进来,有利于调水的丰枯遭遇频率可达77.8%,即调水河流之间能进行补偿调度的概率比较大,这对南水北调西线工程的实施是非常有利的。In order to assess the water supply risk in the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transferring Project, the 4-dimensional joint distribution model is established based on the 4-D copula function to construct the annual runoff series of the water source rivers and the water receiving river. Using this distribution model, the wetness-dryness encountering probability among the Xianshui River, Zumuzu River, Zhuosijia River and the Yellow River was calculated. The result shows that the favorable probability for water transfer is 43.8%, if the combinations of the Yellow River being wet and all source rivers being dry was not taken into account. But if the combinations of the Yellow River being wet and not all the other rivers being dry was considered, the favorable probability for water transfer is 77.8%. It shows that the probability of compensating operation among the 4 rivers is in favor of the implementation of water transfer of the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transferring Project.

关 键 词：南水北调 天然径流 丰枯遭遇 COPULA理论 联合分布 

分 类 号：P333.6[天文地球—水文科学]