广东省结核病发病趋势的时间序列分析  

Application of time series analysis for the prediction of incidence trend of tuberculosis in Guangdong province

作　　者：钟球[1] 蒋莉[1] 周琳[1] 李建伟[1] 陈瑜晖[1] 连永娥[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省结核病防治研究所,广州510630

出　　处：《中国防痨杂志》2010年第9期515-519,共5页Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis

基　　金：国家"十一五"重大传染病专项资助(基金编号:2008ZX10003-007)

摘　　要：目的利用乘积季节模型预测广东省结核病的发病趋势,为制订结核病的防控措施提供科学的依据。方法利用最小二乘法原理,应用自回归求和移动平均模型与随机季节模型相结合的乘积季节模型,对广东省结核病发病趋势进行预测。结果利用1996年至2008年资料构建ARI-MA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)4模型,所建立的模型的预测效果良好,实际值均在预测值的95%可信区间内。结论采用ARIMA乘积季节模型预测广东省结核病发病情况,拟合及预测效果较好,预测结果符合全省发病现状及当前采取的防控措施。Objective To utilize the product seasonal model to predict the trend of TB and provide scientific evidence for formulating the related measures of prevention and cure. Methods The product seasonal model was combined with ARIMA model and stochastic seasonal model by using the least square principle. Results The ARIMA（0,1,1）（0,1,1）4 model was established by the data from 1996 to 2008, and the effectiveness of prediction of this model showed to be good with the actual values in the 95% confidence interval of predicted values. Conclusion The ARIMA product seasonal model shows effective to predict the incidence of TB in Guangdong province, and the results is in according to the current status of TB, moreover, it could provide information for us to take measures for TB prevention and control.

关 键 词：结核 肺/预防和控制 结核 肺/流行病学 发病率 时间 广东省 

分 类 号：R52[医药卫生—内科学]