产出缺口估计不确定性问题综述——以对货币政策规则的影响为例  

Uncertainty Problem on Output Gap Estimation:A Perspective of Monetary Policy Rules

作　　者：黄荣哲[1] 农丽娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院金融系,530021 [2]中国人民银行南宁中心支行,530028

出　　处：《经济评论》2010年第5期148-156,共9页Economic Review

基　　金：广西财经学院人才引进(博士)科研启动基金的资助

摘　　要：潜在产出和产出缺口是当局实施货币政策规则的重要依据。然而,不仅可观测的数据乃至于不可观测的产出缺口的准确值无法实时获得(即实时数据的不确定性),而且现有测算方法各有优缺点,很难说某一种方法测度出来的产出缺口最准确(即测算方法的不确定性)。这些都是导致潜在产出和产出缺口估计不确定性的根源。本文以这两个根源为线索对已有文献资料进行整理后发现:(1)产出缺口估计的不确定性问题可能影响到政府和公众的决策行为,使宏观经济政策的制定变得更加复杂,甚至会反过来加剧产出缺口的易变性,并最终降低宏观经济调控政策的效率;(2)当产出缺口不确定性增大时,降低产出缺口的权重以及保持经济政策的连续性和稳定性都具有十分重要的意义。Potential output and output gap are important when the authorities put policy rules into practice.However,people cannot get observable and unobservable data in real time.Furthermore,every evaluation method has different benefits and pitfalls.People cannot distinguish the best one.These above lead to uncertain estimation results about potential output and output gap as well as afford two clues for this paper.After reviewing a lot of literatures,some results are founded.On the one hand,uncertain estimation results about output gap affect decision-makings of the authorities and the public.They not only make macroeconomic policies much more complicated,but also strengthen volatility of output gap.Then efficiency of macroeconomic controls will be lowered.On the other hand,it is significant for economic policies to maintain continuity and stability as well as put less weight on output gap when uncertainty about output gap is rising up.

关 键 词：产出缺口 实时数据 终点问题 政策规则 政策边界 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]