三峡水库对区域气候影响的数值模拟分析  

NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF THREE GORGES RESERVOIR PROJECT ON THE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE

作　　者：马占山 张强[2] 秦琰琰[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2010年第9期1044-1052,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国务院三峡办三峡工程环境保护补偿经费(SX2009-004);中国气象局业务建设项目共同资助

摘　　要：利用中尺度数值模式MM5V3模拟了三峡水库建成后,由于下垫面变化对区域气候的影响,并探讨了三峡水库的建成是否为引发社会广泛关注的高温干旱和低温雨雪冰冻灾害等极端天气的主要因素。研究表明:三峡水库的建成对当地气温具有海洋性效应,库区附近春季温度变低,夏季在水库下游气温升高、上游则气温降低,而冬季则以升温为主;春季降水变化主要位于库区沿线的南部山区,增雨带和减雨带相间分布,夏季降水量在三峡库区中上游地区和附近的山区呈增加趋势,在库区下游及附近地区降水呈减少趋势,冬季降水量减少,主要集中在大坝附近地区到三峡(巫山)段;春季库区的相对湿度增加,幅度多在0.5%～1.0%,夏季相对湿度的影响也存在正负两种效应,大坝上游库区附近相对湿度增加,大坝下游地区相对湿度降低,冬季变幅不大;三峡水利工程不是干旱、低温雨雪冰冻等极端天气出现的主因,它对极端天气事件的影响并不明显。The effect on the regional climate caused by changes of underlying surface after the foundation of Three Gorges Reservoir was simulated by MM5V3,a mesoscale numerical model. Whether the foundation of Three Gorges Reservoir will be a main factor of severe drought and heat wave,as well as low temperature, consecutive cryogenic freezing rain and snow disasters, which are issues concerned intensively by society, was discussed. The results show that the foundation of Three Gorges Reservoir will have a sea-like effect to the local temperature. The temperature decreases in spring around the reservoir areas. And in summer, the temperature increases in downstream of reservoir while decreases in the upper stream of reservoir. In winter the temperature increases on the whole. Change of precipitation in spring mainly locates in south mountain area along the reservoir, and the increasing rain-bands alternate with the decreasing rain-bands. In summer,precipitation increases along the middle and upper reaches of Three Gorges Reservoir and the nearby mountain areas, but precipitation decreases in areas around downstream reservoir. And in winter, precipitation decreases mainly from dam areas to Wushan in Three Gorges. It is also found that the relative humidity of reservoir areas increases in spring, with a range of about 0.5 - 1.0 %. In summer, relative hu- midity increases in areas around upper stream of the reservoir, but decrease in areas around downstream reservoir. Relative humidity changes little in winter. In conclusion, Three Gorges Reservoir water conservancy project is not the main inducement of extreme weather disasters such as drought, low temperature and consecutive cryogenic freezing rain.

关 键 词：三峡水库 区域气候影响 数值模拟 极端天气 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]