NMC第二代中期数值预报系统误差的动力诊断  

THE DYNAMICAL DIAGNOSIS OF THE SYSTEMATIC ERRORS OF THE SECOND GENERATION MEDIUM RANGE NWP MODEL AT CNMC

作　　者：刘还珠[1] 滕俏彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《气象学报》1999年第2期143-156,共14页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

摘　　要：利用国家气象中心第二代中期数值预报模式计算了１月和７月的预报诊断量。计算结果表明，新一代模式在动力外强迫作用、辐射通量和对流参数化等物理过程方面的改进，使该模式的预报比第一代模式有了较大的改善，模式预报的系统误差明显减小。通过对角动量、热量和水汽的经向输送和收支平衡的分析，认为该模式在地形处理、陆面过程、云辐射和积云对流参数化等物理过程还有待进一步改进。Upon using the dynamic statistics of the atmospheric circulation the monthly mean forecasting fields of January and July of 1996 obtained from the second generation medium range numerical weather prediction(NWP) model(T63) have been investigated. The results indicate that the new generation model has been improved remarkably in comparison with the old one. The systematic prediction errors of model have been reduced significantly. However there still exist some differences in the distributions in wind, temperature and moisture fields between forecasts and observation. After having diagnosed the transfers and budgets of angular momentum, heat and water vapour of the T63 model, and compared these with observations, it was suggested that, to improve the model performance, the treatments of orography, land surface processes, cloud radiation and convection parameterization in the model need to be improved further.

关 键 词：系统误差 动力诊断 天气预报 中期数值预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.2