精细数值预报在60周年国庆天气服务中的应用  

Application of Refined Numerical Weather Prediction During 2009 China National Day Parade

作　　者：冯涛[1,2] 沈新勇[1] 刘英[2] 王东海[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2010年第3期1-5,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目;灾害天气国家重点实验室基本科研项目(2008LASWZI01);国家自然科学基金项目(40775033);江苏省青蓝工程(2009)资助

摘　　要：在60周年国庆天气服务中,使用ARPS实时分析预报系统,将地面观测、探空、自动站、雷达基数据和风云2卫星TBB等多种观测资料同化,使用较多的观测数据调整模式初始场,对天安门地区未来3天的天气逐日进行精细化数值预报。对ARPS系统的降水落区和量级预报能力及单点降水预报准确率检验结果表明:对于秋季低槽东移造成的华北地区的大范围降水,ARPS系统有较好的预报能力,12-36 h预报的>1 mm降水落区与实况十分吻合,降水量预报通常略大于实况;对单点的1 h的累积降水预报,预报降水的开始时间较实际降水时间提前1-3 h,1h累积降水随时间增大或减小的变化趋势预报比较准确。综合看来,使用ARPS实时分析预报系统进行精细化天气预报是可行的,数值预报的结果对于精细化天气预报决策具有较好的参考价值。During 2009 China National Day Parade,using ARPS Real-time Forecast and Analysis System assimilated SYNOP,sounding,AWS,raw-radar data and FY2 TBB data,and using more observation data adjusted model initial field,the day-by-day refined numerical weather prediction for further 3 days in Tian An Men area worked.Verified the rainfall area and precipitation,the accuracy of forecast precipitation in single point,and the result shows that it is better to use ARPS Real-time Forecast and Analysis System to predict the rainfall area and precipitation of large range precipitation cased by low pressure trough moving eastward in North China in autumn.To 12-36 h prediction,the〉 1 mm rainfall areas are same with the actual,the rainfall prediction values are little more.To the 1 hour accumulated rainfall prediction,the initial time is 1-3 hours earlier than observation.The variation tendency is approximate to reality.So the numerical rainfall prediction by ARPS could be credible to refined weather prediction decision making.

关 键 词：精细化预报 数值预报 降水检验 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]