青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析  

Prediction of strong earthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions

作　　者：秦四清[1] 薛雷[1] 黄鑫[1] 王媛媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2010年第4期1168-1174,共7页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程(KZCX2-YW-113和KZCX2-YW-Q03-02113)项目资助

摘　　要：根据孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与孕震时空区域划分四项基本原则,确定了青海、甘肃与宁夏地区地震区划分的合理方案,给出了各地震区未来强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明,除海原、共和、昆仑山口西地震区近期无破坏性地震发生,玉树地震区未来地震趋势目前还难以判定外,古浪、乌兰-大柴旦、玛多-阿坝地震区都将有破坏性地震发生,且都距临界点较近.According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the four essential principles for dividing the seismogenic spatio-temporal scope, the rational division scheme of seismic zones in the Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia regions, China, is determined. Furthermore. The prediction including the magnitude, place, critical strain corresponding to the occurrence time, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone, is made using the above-mentioned method and principle. It is shown that the destructive earthquake will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Haiyuan, Gonghe and Kunlunshankouxi seismic zones, but that the seismic trend in the Yushu seismic zone is difficult to be judged at present.

关 键 词：地震区 锁固段 孕震时空区域 预测方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]