Temperature variability since A.D.1837 inferred from tree-ring maximum density of Abies fabri on Gongga Mountain,China  

作　　者：DUAN JianPing WANG Lily LI Lun CHEN KeLong 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China [3]Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [4]Department of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2010年第26期3015-3022,共8页

基　　金：supported by the Science and Technology Ministry Commonwealth Trade (Meteorology) Scientific Research Specialized Project (GYHY200806011);the National Basic S&T Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2007FY220200);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871058)

摘　　要：Two tree-ring MXD (maximum latewood density) chronologies of Abies fabri were developed from the eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, and a regional chronology (RC) was established based on the two MXD chronologies. There were significant positive correlations between the three MXD chronologies and August-September temperature, and the RC had the highest correlation (r=0.733, n=48, P<0.001) with mean August-September temperature. Based on growth-climate analyses, we reconstructed mean August-September temperature during the past 171 years for the study area. The reconstruction explained 53.5% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1960-2007 (F=52.8, R2adj =52.4%). In the past 171 years, there were 22 very warm years and 23 very cold years, four cold periods (1837-1842, 1884-1891, 1899-1905 and 1984-1989) and three warm periods (1966-1973, 1916-1924 and 1876-1881). Our reconstruction was validated by other tree ring-based temperature reconstructions from the surrounding area and documented climate disaster events.Two tree-ring MXD （maximum latewood density） chronologies of Abiesfabri were developed from the eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, and a regional chronology （RC） was established based on the two MXD chronologies. There were significant positive correlations between the three MXD chronologies and August-September temperature, and the RC had the highest correlation （r=0.733, n=48, P〈0.001） with mean August-September temperature. Based on growth-climate analyses, we reconstructed mean August-September temperature during the past 171 years for the study area. The reconstruction explained 53.5% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1960-2007 （F=52.8, R^2 adj =52.4%）. In the past 171 years, there were 22 very warm years and 23 very cold years, four cold periods （1837-1842, 1884-1891, 1899-1905 and 1984--1989） and three warm periods （1966-1973, 1916-1924 and 1876-1881）. Our reconstruction was validated by other tree ring-based temperature reconstructions from the surrounding area and documented climate disaster events.

关 键 词：温度变化 最大密度 贡嘎山 树轮 峨眉 中国 气候分析 钢筋混凝土 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV49[水利工程—水工结构工程]