The novel H1N1 Influenza A global airline transmission and early warning without travel containments  

作　　者：CHANG ChaoYi CAO ChunXiang WANG Qiao CHEN Yu CAO ZhiDong ZHANG Hao DONG Lei ZHAO Jian XU Min GAO MengXu ZHONG ShaoBo HE QiSheng WANG JinFeng LI XiaoWen 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100101, China [2]The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [3]Satellite Environment Center, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100012, China [4]Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligence Science, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China [5]Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [6]Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2010年第26期3030-3036,共7页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB714404);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871173);Special Grant For Prevention And Treatment of Infectious Diseases (2008ZX10004-012)

摘　　要：A novel influenza A (H1N1) has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading.A novel influenza A （H1N1） has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading.

关 键 词：国际航空 安全壳 流感 旅行 传播 预警 流行病模型 航空公司 

分 类 号：F560.8[经济管理—产业经济] TL364.3[核科学技术—核技术及应用]