腐蚀油气管线的可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of corroded oil and gas pipeline

作　　者：徐伟[1] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2010年第9期69-72,77,共5页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAJ16B08)

摘　　要：ASME B31G是国际通用的评价腐蚀管线失效应力的标准,考虑到这种方法的保守性,以修正后的B31G模型作为研究腐蚀管线失效应力的基础,考虑管壁厚度、腐蚀速率、工作压力、缺陷深度等随机变量,构建腐蚀油气管线可靠性极限状态函数。然后,采用一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管线进行可靠性分析,得出管线的失效概率、可靠性指标以及剩余使用寿命。此外,为了更加规范的管理腐蚀管线,参照美国石油组织的相关规定,对不同失效概率的管线进行了等级划分。在最后的案例分析中,还讨论失效概率对不同变异系数对的敏感性,计算结果表明失效概率对管壁厚度的变异系数最为敏感。ASME B31G is the international criteria to assess the failure stress of corroded pipeline,taking into account its conservatism,this paper studies the failure stress of corroded pipeline based on the modified B31G,and considers some random variables that contains pipeline wall thickness,corrosion rate,operating pressure,defect depth and so on,so a limit state function of corroded carrying Oil/Gas is established.Afterwards,the first order and second moment method is employed for research on the reliability of corroded pipeline,and calculation on reliability index,failure probability and remaining life.In addition,to further standardize the management of corrosion of pipelines,taking into account the relevant provisions of American Petroleum Institute,different failure probability of pipeline were graded.In the final,a sensitivity analysis was carried out on random variables involved in the problem.The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the failure probability is the most sensitive to the coefficient of variation of wall thickness.

关 键 词：管线腐蚀 可靠性分析 一次二阶矩 失效概率 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]